The Game of "Chicken Space"
Congestion
15k 1M satellites
Exponential growth trajectory
Number of conjunctions
~20 ~250 / day
Between 2 different operators
Maneuver cost
$220M $2.7B / year
For all operators
Why burn fuel if they can move?
Operator A
RISK: 10^-4
THE STALEMATE: Voluntary coordination lacks economic incentives.
Why disrupt service if they can move?
Operator B
Roadmap to Standardization
Phase 1: Efficiency
Operators use chat to coordinate
Phase 2: Ecosystem
Insurers & Banks adopt E quinox rbit as risk premium standard
Phase 3: Regulation (2040)
ITU adopts Orbital Capacity as launch requirement.